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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.